David-headshot

David L McCollum

Distinguished Scientist

Contact

MCCOLLUMDL@ORNL.GOV

Bio

Dr. David L. McCollum is a Distinguished R&D Staff in the Energy Science and Technology Directorate (ESTD) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory as well as a Joint Faculty Professor at the University of Tennessee's Baker School of Public Policy. He is Director of DecisionScience@ORNL and ORNL's ARMADA Research Program, and co-leads ORNL's Southeast Resilience Accelerator Initiative (SERA). David's expertise spans economics, engineering, policy analysis, and corporate advisory services, and his research attempts to inform state, national, and global energy and environmental issues on matters related to, among others, resilient future pathways, energy-transport-climate policies, electric sector planning, end-use sector electrification (transport, buildings, industry), AI data centers and quantum computing, Sustainable Development Goals (including inter-dependencies), financing needs for the energy system, and human dimensions of global change. He employs energy-economic systems, multi-sector dynamics, and integrated assessment models in support of this work (e.g., MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, TIMES-MARKAL, REGEN, GCAM), as well as techno-economic analysis (TEA), life-cycle analysis (LCA), and geospatial science approaches.

Before joining ORNL in September 2021, David was a Senior Research Scholar with the Energy Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria, and a Principal Technical Leader at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in Palo Alto, California. He currently holds a secondary appointment as Guest Senior Research Scholar at IIASA, and previously was Honorary Senior Research Fellow at Imperial College London. The latter was in his capacity with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Support Unit (TSU - Working Group III) for the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). David previously led activities within the Global Energy Assessment; IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 - WG III); IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C; and other international, multi-stakeholder initiatives, such as for the World Bank and International Science Council (ISC). He is listed by Reuters as one of the world’s 250 most influential climate scientists and has mentored Ph.D. students at universities throughout the world.

David received a PhD and MS in Transportation Technology & Policy from the University of California, Davis (USA), Institute of Transportation Studies; an MS in Agricultural & Resource Economics from the same institution; and a BS in Chemical Engineering from the University of Tennessee (USA).

 

Expertise & Interests

  • Integrated assessment and multi-sector dynamics of global change and its human drivers and impacts
  • Analysis of energy, climate, and broader sustainability objectives, including assessing their inter-linkages
  • Energy-economic systems modeling and scenario analysis to inform policy-making and corporate decision-making (global, national, and subnational)
  • Techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle analysis (LCA) of emerging technologies and processes
  • Transportation and urban systems modeling and analysis (technology, policy, consumer behavior)
  • Electricity sector modeling and analysis (end-use electrification, systems modeling, and markets and regulation)
  • Computing and digitalization futures analyses exploring energy, resource, and environmental implications
  • Sustainability finance (investment needs for achieving energy, climate, and other sustainability goals)

 

Current and/or Recently Completed Work (examples)

  • CIFRA: Computing Infrastructure Futures and Resource Assessments 
    • Leading a collaborative effort between ORNL and the University of Virginia (Prof. Andrés Clarens and Prof. Madhav Marathe) geared toward advancing the frontier of integrated modeling and whole-systems scenario analysis with respect to AI data center deployment over mid-to-long term timeframes, considering multiple spatial/jurisdictional scales and co-evolving dynamics in interacting urban infrastructure and human systems.
    • Interested in novel, game-changing computing architectures (e.g., neuromorphic, DNA, analog, quantum) and their potential to unlock new possibilities for integration with other infrastructures (homes, buildings, factories, etc.) and, by extension, their varied implications for electricity demand, excess/waste heat recovery, water use, heat islands, affordability, and grid resilience.
  • QUEENS: Quantum for the Environment, Economy, and National Security
    • Leading an analysis effort exploring alternative futures for quantum computing and associated infrastructure; estimating the future potential energy and physical resource impacts of quantum-accelerated AI data centers at scale.
  • ReX Data Centers: Circular Economy Strategies for AI Data Center Components
    • Leading a project to explore the readiness/capacity of the U.S. industrial base and associated supply chains to produce the critical components and materials required for next-generation data centers through reuse, repair, recycling, and repurposing (ReX) of currently classified waste, especially from decommissioned equipment from existing data centers. 
    • The compiled data and insights will inform energy systems, industrial, manufacturing, and waste-management analysis communities in conducting forward-looking assessments of advanced computing futures and the requisite infrastructure deployment. 
    • Sponsor: DOE Industrial Technologies Office (ITO)
  • Enhanced Circularity of Power Transformers
    • Leading a project to evaluate and accelerate circular economy strategies for power transformers by assessing current supply chains and identifying bottlenecks and opportunities (e.g., for copper, aluminum, and steel)
    • Primary objectives include: developing future scenarios that incorporate reuse, repair, recycling, remanufacturing, and repurposing
      (“ReX”) strategies; quantifying economic, workforce, and investment impacts associated with increased circularity; identifying actionable strategies to reduce supply chain constraints and enhancing U.S. economic competitiveness; and creating a transferable framework that is applicable to other grid hardware components.
    • Sponsor: DOE Office of Electricity (OE)
  • SERA: Southeast Resilience Accelerator Initiative 
    • Co-leading an effort to enable integrated data, modeling, and innovation frameworks and approaches that couple hydrologic, energy, infrastructure, and human dynamics across scales and sectors from stream to river basin, consumer to grid, and neighborhood to region 
    • Goal is to connect ORNL’s world-class data, models, and capabilities across multiple mission areas to close knowledge gaps in the dynamic interactions among traditionally siloed science and engineering domains, and through that to deliver actionable datasets, tools, technology, and insights that will inform regional and national stakeholders as they plan and operate more resilient, interconnected energy, water, and other infrastructure systems.
  • ARMADA: Action Relevant Modeling and Decision Analysis
    • Director of an ORNL effort to build a powerful modeling and analysis platform operating at decision-relevant scales (national to sub-county) and taking a 360°, holistic view of new technology and infrastructure expansion.
    • Overarching science objective is how to ensure an affordable, secure, and resilient supply of energy in the face of rapidly growing demand, recognizing key trade-offs across multiple dimensions (social, economic, and environmental).
  • Next-Generation Data Centers Institute (NGDCI)
    • Member, Leadership Team of an ORNL-led initiative to design, operate, and integrate next-generation AI data centers into the U.S. energy system.
  • DecisionScience@ORNL
    • Director of an ORNL effort to build a diverse community of decision science and global change analysis experts across the laboratory
    • Oversaw 10 projects that leveraged techno-economic analysis (TEA), life-cycle analysis (LCA), and geospatial science to explore the future scaling potential of emerging technologies and processes
  • Integrated Energy Futures
    • Cross-Laboratory Co-Lead on the Core Analysis Team (NREL, ANL, LBNL, ORNL, PNNL)
    • Sponsor: DOE-EERE Strategic Analysis Office
  • MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice
  • Net Zero World Initiative
    • ORNL Lab Lead
    • Deputy Manager for Partnerships (formerly), NZW Action Center
    • Sponsor: DOE, State Department, other US government agencies, multiple philanthropic foundations
  • Circular Bioeconomy Systems (CBS)
    • Theme Lead for “Decision Science” within the CBS Convergent Research Initiative of the University of Tennessee - Oak Ridge Innovation Institute (UT-ORII)
    • Focus is on developing methods and standards to measure and maximize the social, environmental, and economic value of carbon pools and streams, thereby making these materials recyclable for the benefit of society
  • Energy Modeling Forum 37 Exercise (EMF-37): Deep Decarbonization & High Electrification Scenarios for North America
    • Transportation Study Team
    • Ancillary Impacts Study Team
    • Hydrogen Study Team
  • EDITS Consortium (Energy Demand changes Induced by Technological and Social innovations)
    • End-Use Energy Demand Data Working Group
    • Energy Security Working Group
  • E3SM-GCAM Exploration of CDR
    • Exploring the effectiveness of land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in stringent mitigation pathways using world-leading earth systems and integrated assessment models [Energy Exascale Earth Systems Model (E3SM) and Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)]

 

Publications (illustrative)

 

Leadership Positions, Advisory Boards & Committees (past and present)

 

Media & Interviews (selected)

 

Publications

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Key Links

Curriculum Vitae
Google Scholar
ORCID
LinkedIn
IMPACT@ORNL
Scopus

Organizations