David L McCollum

Bio

Dr. David L. McCollum is a Distinguished R&D Staff in the Transportation Analytics and Decision Sciences (TADS) Group at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, where he is Director of DecisionScience@ORNL and the ARMADA Research Program. He also holds a Joint Faculty Appointment at the University of Tennessee's Baker School of Public Policy. David's expertise spans economics, engineering, policy analysis, and corporate advisory services, and his research attempts to inform state, national (developed and developing) and global energy and environmental issues on matters related to, among others, resilient future pathways, energy-transport-climate policies, electric sector planning, end-use sector electrification (transport, buildings, industry), AI data centers and quantum computing, Sustainable Development Goals (including inter-dependencies), financing needs for the energy system, and human dimensions of global change. He employs energy-economic systems and integrated assessment models in support of this work (e.g., MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, TIMES-MARKAL, REGEN, GCAM).

Before joining ORNL in September 2021, David was a Senior Research Scholar with the Energy Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria, and a Principal Technical Leader at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in Palo Alto, California. He currently holds a secondary appointment as Guest Senior Research Scholar at IIASA, and previously was Honorary Senior Research Fellow at Imperial College London. The latter was in his capacity with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Support Unit (TSU - Working Group III) for the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). David previously led activities within the Global Energy Assessment; IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 - WG III); IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C; and other international, multi-stakeholder initiatives, such as for the World Bank and International Science Council (ISC). He is listed by Reuters as one of the world’s 250 most influential climate scientists.

David received a PhD and MS in Transportation Technology & Policy from the University of California, Davis (USA), Institute of Transportation Studies; an MS in Agricultural & Resource Economics from the same institution; and a BS in Chemical Engineering from the University of Tennessee (USA).

Examples of Current and Recently Completed Work

• Next-Generation Data Centers in a World of Change
  • Leading a collaborative effort between ORNL and the University of Virginia (Prof. Andrés Clarens and Prof. Madhav Marathe) geared toward advancing the frontier of integrated modeling and whole-systems scenario analysis with respect to AI data center deployment over mid-to-long term timeframes, considering multiple spatial/jurisdictional scales and co-evolving dynamics in interacting infrastructural and human systems.
• QUEENS: Quantum for the Environment, Economy, and National Security
  • Leading an analysis effort exploring alternative futures for quantum computing and associated infrastructure; estimating the future potential energy and physical resource impacts of quantum-accelerated AI data centers at scale.
• ARMADA: Action Relevant Modeling and Decision Analysis
  • Director of an ORNL effort to build a powerful modeling and analysis platform operating at decision-relevant scales (national to sub-county) and taking a 360°, holistic view of new technology and infrastructure expansion.
  • Overarching science objective is how to ensure an affordable, secure, and resilient supply of energy in the face of rapidly growing demand, recognizing key trade-offs across multiple dimensions (social, economic, and environmental).
• DecisionScience@ORNL
  • Director of an ORNL effort to build a diverse community of decision science and global change analysis experts across the laboratory
• Integrated Energy Futures
  • Cross-Laboratory Co-Lead on the Core Analysis Team (NREL, ANL, LBNL, ORNL, PNNL)
  • Sponsor: DOE-EERE Strategic Analysis Office
• MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice
  • Member, Scientific Steering Group
  • Co-Chair, Working Group on Connecting MSD Research to Operations and Planning ('R2O2R')
• Net Zero World Initiative
  • ORNL Lab Lead
  • Deputy Manager for Partnerships (formerly), NZW Action Center
  • Sponsor: DOE, State Department, other US government agencies, multiple philanthropic foundations
• Circular Bioeconomy Systems (CBS)
  • Theme Lead for “Decision Science” within the CBS Convergent Research Initiative of the University of Tennessee - Oak Ridge Innovation Institute (UT-ORII)
  • Focus is on developing methods and standards to measure and maximize the social, environmental, and economic value of carbon pools and streams, thereby making these materials recyclable for the benefit of society
• Energy Modeling Forum 37 Exercise (EMF-37): Deep Decarbonization & High Electrification Scenarios for North America
  • Transportation Study Team
  • Ancillary Impacts Study Team
  • Hydrogen Study Team
• EDITS Consortium (Energy Demand changes Induced by Technological and Social innovations)
  • End-Use Energy Demand Data Working Group
  • Energy Security Working Group
• E3SM-GCAM Exploration of CDR
  • Exploring the effectiveness of land-based carbon dioxide removal in stringent mitigation pathways using world-leading earth systems and integrated assessment models

Expertise & Interests

• Integrated assessment and multi-sector dynamics of global change and its human drivers and impacts
• Analysis of energy, climate, and broader sustainability objectives, including assessing their inter-linkages
• Energy-economic systems modeling and scenario analysis to inform policy-making and corporate decision-making (global, national, and subnational)
• Transportation sector modeling and analysis (technology, policy, consumer behavior)
• Electricity sector modeling and analysis (end-use electrification, systems modeling, and markets and regulation)
• Computing and digitalization futures and their energy, resource, and environmental implications
• Sustainability finance (investment needs for achieving energy, climate, and other sustainability goals)

Illustrative Publications

• Hoehne, C., M. Muratori, J. Bistline, C. Lenox, D.L. McCollum et al. (2025). “Transportation in net-zero emissions futures: Insights from the EMF-37 model intercomparison study,” Energy and Climate Change, Vol. 6.
• McCollum, D.L. (2025). “Collaborative energy and land use planning,” Nature Sustainability.
• National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2025). "U.S. Research Data Summit: Strengthening Cooperation Across Organizations and Sectors: Proceedings of a Workshop," Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
• Zhou, R., M. Jin, Z. Li, Y. Xiao, D. McCollum, and A. Li (2025). “Techno-economic analysis and network design for CO₂ conversion to jet fuels in the United States,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 210.
• Loughlin, D.H., A.R. Barron, C.B. Chettri, A. O'Meara, L. Sarmiento, D. Dong, D.L. McCollum, S. Showalter, R.H. Beach, J. Bistline, G.J. Kim, C.G. Nolte, J. Emmerling, P. Ozge Kaplan (2024). “Health and Air Pollutant Emission Impacts of Net Zero CO2 by 2050: Scenarios from the Energy Modeling Forum 37 Study,” Energy and Climate Change, Vol. 5.
• Melaina, M.W., C.S. Lenox, M. Browning, D.L. McCollum, O. Bahn, and S. Ou (2024). "Modeling hydrogen markets: Energy system model development status and decarbonization scenario results," Energy and Climate Change, Vol. 5.
• Mach, K.J., K. Jagannathan, L., Shi, L.L. Turek-Hankins, J.R. Arnold, C. Brelsford, A.N. Flores, J. Gao, C.E. Martin, D.L. McCollum, R. Moss, J. Niemann, B. Rashleigh, and P.M. Reed (2024). “Research to confront climate change complexity: Intersectionality, integration, and innovative governance,” Earth’s Future, 12 (6).
• Bento, N., A. Grubler, B. Boza-Kiss, S. De Stercke, V. Krey, D.L. McCollum, C. Zimm, and T. Alves (2024). "Leverage demand-side policies for energy security," Science, 383 (6686), 946-949.
• Brown, M. A., P. E. Thornton, R. L. Gruber, S. Hubbard, M. Lapsa, E. Lara-Curzio, T. C. Lieuwen, D. McCollum, M. Oxman, D. Stanton, M. Twardy, and R. Wagner (2024). "2023 Southeast Decarbonization Workshop - Activating science, business, and  community partnerships," Oak Ridge National Laboratory. ORNL/TM-2024/3470.
• Bistline, J.E.T. G. Blanford, J. Grant, E. Knipping, D.L McCollum, U. Nopmongcol, H. Scarth, T. Shah, and G. Yarwood (2022). "Economy-wide evaluation of CO2 and air quality impacts of electrification in the United States," Nature Communications (13:1), 1-12.
• Zakeri, B., K. Paulavets, L. Barreto-Gomez, L. Gomez Echeverri, S. Pachauri, B. Boza-Kiss, C. Zimm, J. Rogelj, F. Creutzig, D. Ürge-Vorsatz, D.G. Victor, M.D. Bazilian, S. Fritz, D. Gielen, D.L. McCollum, L. Srivastava, J.D. Hunt, and S. Pouya (2022). “Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions,” Energies, 15 (17).
• IPCC Working Group III Contribution to the 6th Assessment Report (WG III AR6) - Lead Author for Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary; and Contributing Author for Chapter 3 (Mitigation Pathways Compatible with Long-term Goals), Chapter 6 (Energy Systems), and Annex III (Scenarios and Modelling Methods)
• Yeh, S., J. Gil, P. Kyle, P. Kishimoto, P. Cazzola, M. Craglia, O. Edelenbosch, P. Fragkos, L. Fulton, Y. Liao, L. Martinez, D.L. McCollum, J. Miller, R. Pereira, and J. Teter (2022). “Improving future travel demand projections: a pathway with an open science interdisciplinary approach,” Progress in Energy.
• Bhardwaj, C., J. Axsen, and D. McCollum (2022). “Which ‘Second-best’ Climate Policies Are Best? Simulating Cost-effective Policy Mixes for Passenger Vehicles,” Resource and Energy Economics, 101319.
• Bhardwaj, C., J. Axsen, and D. McCollum (2022). “How to design a zero-emissions vehicle mandate? Simulating impacts on sales, GHG emissions and cost-effectiveness using the AUtomaker-Consumer Model (AUM),” Transport Policy (117).
• McCollum, D.L. (2021). “Machine learning for energy projections,” Nature Energy.
• McCollum, D.L. and A. Al Khourdajie (2021), "Little room for new fossil fuel development if global temperatures are to stay below 1.5°C". Joule, Vol. 5, Issue 10, pp. 2542-2545.
• Skea, J., P. Shukla, A. Al Khourdajie, and D. McCollum (2021), "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Transparency and integrated assessment modeling". Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 12, Issue 5.
• Bistline, J.E.T., C.W. Roney, D.L. McCollum, and G.J. Blanford (2021). "Deep decarbonization impacts on electric load shapes and peak demand". Environmental Research Letters.
• Bhardwaj, C., J. Axsen, and D. McCollum (2021). "Simulating automakers’ response to zero emissions vehicle regulation". Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 94, 102789.
• Knighton, L.T. et al. (2021). “Techno-Economic Analysis of Product Diversification Options for Sustainability of the Monticello and Prairie Island Nuclear Power Plants,” Technical Report INL/EXT-21-62563-Rev001. US-DOE Office of Nuclear Energy.
• Andrijevic, M., C.F. Schleussner, M.J. Gidden, D.L. McCollum, and J. Rogelj (2020). "COVID-19 recovery funds dwarf clean energy investment needs". Science, Vol. 370, Issue 6514, 298-300.
• Bhardwaj, C., J. Axsen, F. Kern, and D. McCollum (2020). "Why have multiple climate policies for light-duty vehicles? Policy mix rationales, interactions and research gaps". Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 135, 309-326.
• McCollum, D., A. Gambhir, J. Rogelj, and C. Wilson (2020). “Energy modellers should explore extremes more systematically in scenarios”. Nature Energy.
• Parkinson, S., V. Krey, D. Huppmann, T. Kahil, D. McCollum et al. (2019). "Balancing clean water-climate change mitigation trade-offs". Environmental Research Letters 14 (1), 014009.
• Grubler, A., C. Wilson, N. Bento, B. Boza-Kiss, V. Krey, D.L. McCollum et al. (2018). "A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies". Nature Energy, Vol. 3, Issue 6, 515-527.
• McCollum, D.L., C. Wilson, M. Bevione, S. Carrara, O.Y. Edelenbosch, J. Emmerling, C. Guivarch, P. Karkatsoulis, I. Keppo, V. Krey, Z. Lin, E. Ó Broin, L. Paroussos, H. Pettifor, K. Ramea, K. Riahi, F. Sano, B.S. Rodriguez, and D.P. van Vuuren (2018). “Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles”. Nature Energy, Vol. 3, 664–673.
• McCollum, D.L., W. Zhou, C. Bertram, H.-S. de Boer, V. Bosetti, S. Busch, J. Després, L. Drouet, J. Emmerling, M. Fay, O. Fricko, S. Fujimori, M. Gidden, M. Harmsen, D. Huppmann, G. Iyer, V. Krey, E. Kriegler, C. Nicolas, S. Pachauri, S. Parkinson, M. Poblete-Cazenave, P. Rafaj, N. Rao, J. Rozenberg, A. Schmitz, W. Schoepp, D. van Vuuren, and K. Riahi (2018). “Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals”. Nature Energy, Vol. 3, 589-599.
• McCollum, D.L., L. Gomez Echeverri, S. Busch, S. Pachauri, S. Parkinson, J. Rogelj, V. Krey, J. Minx, M. Nilsson, A.S. Stevance, and K. Riahi (2018). “Connecting the Sustainable Development Goals by their energy inter-linkages”. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 1, Number 3.
• McCollum, D.L., C. Wilson, H. Pettifor, K. Ramea, V. Krey, K. Riahi, C. Bertram, Z. Lin, O.Y. Edelenbosch, and S. Fujisawa (2017). "Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices". Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 55, pp. 322-342.
• McCollum, D.L., J. Jewell, V. Krey, M. Bazilian, M. Fay, and K. Riahi (2016), “Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions”. Nature Energy, Vol. 1, Issue 6, Article number: 16077.
• Cameron, C., S. Pachauri, N. Rao, D. McCollum, J. Rogelj, and K. Riahi (2016). “Policy tradeoffs between climate mitigation and clean cook stove access in South Asia”. Nature Energy, Vol. 1, Issue 1, Article number: 15010.

Leadership Positions, Advisory Boards & Committees (past and present)

• Leadership Team, Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) Workshop on Human behavior in global change models: Cross-disciplinary synthesis for future directions, November 2025
• Member, Research Coordination Network on the Digital Economy and the Environment (DEEP)
• Member, International Science Council's Global Roster of Experts
• Review Editor, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Global Environment Outlook #7 (GEO-7), Chapter on Staying on the path we are on – global implications
• Review Editor, Fifth U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA5), Chapter 18 on Sector Interactions, Multiple Stressors, and Complex Systems
• Review Editor, Second Austrian Climate Assessment Report (AAR2), Chapter 3 on Settlements, Mobility and Spatial Planning
• Co-Chair, Working Group on Connecting MSD Research to Operations and Planning, MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice
• Leadership Team, ORNL Climate Change Science Institute (CCSI)
• Member, Expert Group on Energy’s Interlinkages with Other SDGs in the framework of the SDG7 Technical Advisory Group (SDG7 TAG), United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA)
• Associate Editor, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition (a peer-reviewed, open-access journal published by Elsevier)
• Member, U.S. Committee for IIASA; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (NASEM); Board on International Scientific Organizations
• Member, Planning Committee for the U.S. Research Data Summit 2023; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM), Policy and Global Affairs Division
• External Advisory Council, EmPOWERment National Science Foundation (NSF) Research Traineeship Program, The Ohio State University
• Scientific Advisory Board, EU Horizon 2020 Project LOCOMOTION
• Scientific Advisory Board, EU Horizon Europe Project DIAMOND
• Advisory Team, TEMOA modeling for the project Open Energy Outlook for the United States; North Carolina State University and Carnegie Mellon University
• Steering Committee, TEMPO transportation pathways model; National Renewable Energy Laboratory
• Scientific Advisory Group, Science Based Targets Initiative
• Steering Committee Member, International Transport Energy Modeling Consortium (iTEM),
• Advisory Board Member, International Transport Forum (of the OECD), Decarbonising Transport Initiative
• Member, Permanent Committee on Diversity Management and Building a Positive Work Environment at IIASA
• Reviewer for Science, Nature, Nature Climate Change, Nature Energy, Nature Sustainability, Nature Communications, Environmental Research Letters, Climatic Change, Joule, Energy and Climate Change, Energy Economics, and others
• Supervisor and mentor to dozens of junior and mid-career staff (including students) since 2011

Publications