Abstract
This paper updates an earlier paper (Das 2003) and focuses on primary magnesium production cost estimates to provide a sound forecast of the long-term competitiveness of magnesium in automotive applications. Competing magnesium production technologies are considered in this assessment, with particular emphasis on the long-term viability of the cheap supplies using the Chinese production technology. Also considered in the comparative production cost analysis are two yet-to-be commercialized production processes. Production cost estimates of competing technologies are disaggregated by major cost categories using the most recent information available from the literature. We consider first the recent price trend and the weight-savings potential of competing materials to determine what the primary magnesium production costs need to be for magnesium to be a viable material/technology option now and in the coming decade. This paper closes with a discussion of the future viability of magnesium use in automotive applications based on the potential sources of magnesium for the U.S. market, the recent supply trend, production cost estimates, and potential demand.