Abstract
The sequence of instantaneous driving decisions and its variations prior to involvement in safety critical events, defined as event-based volatility, can be a leading indicator of safety. The research issue is characterizing volatility in instantaneous driving decisions in longitudinal and lateral directions, and how it varies across drivers involved in normal driving, crash, and near-crash events. A rigorous quasi-experimental study design is adopted to help compare driving behaviors in normal vs unsafe outcomes. Using a unique real-world naturalistic driving database from the SHRP 2, a test set of 9,593 driving events featuring 2.2 million temporal samples of real-world driving are analyzed. Twenty-four aggregate and segmented driving volatility measures based on acceleration and vehicular jerk are proposed, capturing variations in intentional and unintentional extreme instantaneous driving decisions. Given the possibility of unobserved heterogeneity/omitted variable bias, fixed- and random-parameter discrete choice models are developed that relate crash propensity to driving volatility and other factors. Statistically significant evidence is found that driver volatilities in near-crash and crash events are significantly greater than volatility in normal driving events. After controlling for traffic, roadway, and unobserved factors, the results suggest that greater intentional volatility increases the likelihood of both crash and near-crash events. Importantly, intentional volatility in longitudinal negative jerk has more negative consequences than intentional volatility in positive vehicular jerk. Compared to acceleration/deceleration, vehicular jerk can better characterize the volatility in microscopic driving decisions. The study demonstrates the value of big data analytics for understanding extreme driving behaviors in safe vs. unsafe driving outcomes.
