Publication Type
Conference Paper
Book Title
Winter Simulation Conference 2023
Publication Date
Page Numbers
734 to 745
Publisher Location
New Jersey, United States of America
Conference Name
Winter Simulation Conference 2023 (WSC)
Conference Location
San Antonio, Texas, United States of America
Conference Sponsor
American Statistical Association (ASA), Technical Co-Sponsor; Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers: Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society (IEEE/SMC), Technical Co-Sponsor
Conference Date
-
Abstract
This paper develops a probabilistic model to assess the cascading failure of transformers in an electric power grid experiencing geomagnetic disturbances caused by a solar storm. We propose a model in which the probability of failure is a function of the intensity of the solar storm, the physical properties of the transformer, the geographical location of the transformer, and the flow of electrical power. We demonstrate the proposed model using the IEEE 14-bus system and several notional solar storms. The model quickly computes the initial and cascading failure probabilities of the transformers in the system as a first step towards quantifying the risks posed by future solar storms.
