Abstract
This paper provides an analysis of fuel ethanol transportation activity and potential distribution constraints if the total 36 billion gallons of renewable fuel use by 2022 is mandated by EPA under the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007. Ethanol transport by domestic truck, marine, and rail distribution systems from ethanol refineries to blending terminals is estimated using Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) North American Infrastructure Network Model. Most supply and demand data provided by EPA were geo-coded and using available commercial sources the transportation infrastructure network was updated. The percentage increases in ton-mile movements by rail, waterways, and highways in 2022 are estimated to be 2.8%, 0.6%, and 0.13%, respectively, compared to the corresponding 2005 total domestic flows by various modes. Overall, a significantly higher level of future ethanol demand would have minimal impacts on transportation infrastructure. However, there will be spatial impacts and a significant level of investment required because of a considerable increase in rail traffic from refineries to ethanol distribution terminals.