Developing a predictive understanding of Earth systems
Researchers in the Earth System Modeling group at Oak Ridge National Laboratory develop comprehensive, predictive insights into the complex interactions among Earth’s physical, biological, ecological, and human systems. Earth’s interconnected systems operate across multiple scales of time and space, presenting significant challenges for researchers aiming to forecast how land-surface processes and human activities influence and respond to global Earth system dynamics. The group addresses these challenges by employing sophisticated numerical simulations and advanced quantitative analyses to enhance the accuracy, reliability, and scope of Earth system predictions.
A primary research goal is the integration of observational data, experimental outcomes, and computational modeling across temporal and spatial scales. By synthesizing information gathered from field experiments, satellite observations, and extensive databases, the team continually refines and validates their predictive models. These integrated approaches allow researchers to unravel complex land-surface processes, understand the underlying drivers of ecological patterns, and identify critical areas requiring further exploration.
Scientists study the complex processes to improve the nation’s predictive land models. Here, team members Jiafu Mao and Yaoping Wang discuss the urban-rural difference in vegetation resilience to heat extremes. Credit: ORNL, U.S. Dept. of Energy
One essential aspect of this research involves quantifying and evaluating the range of model predictions. By analyzing variations in model outcomes, the group can pinpoint specific processes or parameters that require more detailed investigation. This systematic assessment also highlights the most beneficial observational and experimental strategies, guiding future research priorities and optimizing resource allocation.
Group members possess extensive expertise spanning multiple scientific disciplines, including biogeochemistry, hydrology, computational modeling, artificial intelligence, and data analytics. Their interdisciplinary backgrounds and collaborative approach enable the use of advanced modeling frameworks, such as the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). This powerful modeling tool leverages next-generation high-performance computing capabilities, providing unprecedented resolution and detail in Earth system simulations. These advances in predictive capabilities help to quantify and reduce risks to critical infrastructure and ensure human well-being into the future.
