Exploring Scientific Capacities to Assess Potentials for Infrastructure Adaptation

Abstract

More severe summer heat waves and droughts in the US Midwest and other regions due to climate change, along with changes in population distribution, pose risks of electricity shortages. Options are available for reducing these vulnerabilities and costs and benefits of these options can be determined using a combination of analysis tools. We examine a situation in which a combined heat wave and drought occur in the Midwest, and propose three adaptation scenarios based on changes in supply and demand for the greater Chicago, Illinois area. We find that due to projected population changes in the region, the total number of metered customers approximately doubles by 2054, and that total electricity use increases 72% due to this increase and increases in maximum summer temperatures and frequency of heat waves in the region. As exhibited in one of the three adaptation scenarios, these conditions can lead to an electricity supply deficit by 2054 and rapidly declining margins during prior decades. Technology additions, however, and changes in utility peak-period rates may substantially modify customer demand post-2024 decades.