Energy and Resource Impact Analysis of Quantum Technology Futures

As quantum computing moves from the lab to commercial scale, the world faces extraordinary opportunities—and also potential risks. Quantum’s potential is vast, from solving complex problems to revolutionizing energy savings. However, depending on how quantum technology and its supporting infrastructure evolve, large-scale deployment could introduce substantial new demands for power, water, and rare materials such as the isotope helium-3.

This project explores these trade-offs, with a focus of guiding quantum development into the 2030s, 2040s, and beyond.

Why quantum?

Quantum computing promises breakthroughs in several areas, including:

• Optimization and AI: Accelerating complex simulations and algorithms
• Drug discovery and materials science: Modeling molecules beyond the reach of today’s computers
• Security: Safeguarding encryption and cryptography

Yet these gains may come with significant energy and resource costs unless society plans well in advance, leveraging insights from the best available science.

Oak Ridge National Laboratory has positioned itself at the forefront of quantum science and engineering through a multi-pronged strategy:

• Quantum computing: Developing hybrid architectures that integrate ORNL’s supercomputers, such as Frontier, with quantum processors
• Quantum materials: Using the Spallation Neutron Source and other facilities to design materials with quantum-enhanced properties
• Quantum sensing: Applying advanced optics to create sensors capable of detecting subtle phenomena, including dark matter
• Quantum networking: Collaborating with cities and utilities to integrate quantum-secure communications into infrastructure, including power grids
• Quantum impacts: Analysis and modeling the energy and physical resource implications of future quantum systems and infrastructure at scale

The challenge

Quantum computing systems typically require ultra-cold environments, significant energy for cryogenics, and scarce resources such as helium. Without careful planning, quantum infrastructure could replicate—or exceed—the resource challenges associated with today’s data centers.

The approach

• Integrating energy and resource analysis: Developing datasets and models that assess quantum’s resource demands alongside its technological performance
• Cross-disciplinary collaboration: Bringing together expertise in physics, engineering, energy and resource analysis, economics, and policy
• Scenario planning and roadmaps: Mapping potential development pathways to avoid scalability and adoption challenges

Key insights

Qubits aren’t free: Scaling quantum computers to practical sizes requires major advances in energy management, cryogenics, and supply chain resilience. Current systems depend on extreme cooling and specialized components such as superconducting cables and dilution refrigerators, creating significant cost and infrastructure barriers. Without breakthroughs in these areas, scalability may remain limited.

Resource constraints loom: Quantum systems often rely on rare and resource-intensive inputs, including helium-3 for cooling to near absolute zero, ultra-pure water for chip fabrication, and large, stable electricity supplies for operations. These physical requirements could become critical bottlenecks if not addressed early—particularly as global competition increases and supply chains tighten.

The rebound effect is real: Although quantum computing could deliver efficiency gains in areas such as logistics and chemistry, the energy and material demands of quantum systems may rise rapidly alongside widespread adoption. As seen with AI and data centers, energy savings at the unit level can drive greater overall use. Without proactive planning, quantum deployment could intensify the very resource pressures it aims to reduce.

Planning gaps persist: Most national quantum strategies emphasize basic science and engineering, with less attention to energy, water, infrastructure, and manufacturing constraints. Long-term scaling risks remain underexamined, and few roadmaps address the full physical resource footprint of quantum systems at scale. Policymakers can prioritize resource-aware strategies—efforts currently visible in only a handful of countries.

A decision-support web tool is underway: The team is developing a public-facing dashboard to visualize energy, resource, and infrastructure implications across quantum technology pathways and deployment scenarios.

Publications

• McCollum, D.L., N. Sharma, M. Pan, W. Yao, S. Bhanja, S. Chehade, and A. Delgado (2026). “Uncertain Quantum Computing Futures and Potential Energy and Physical Resource Impacts at Scale.”
• McCollum, D.L., S. Bhanja, S. Chehade, A. Delgado, M. Pan, and N. Sharma (2026). “Energy and physical resource impacts of quantum computing merit greater attention.”