Performance, Cost, and Market Share of Conventional Vehicle Efficiency Technologies?

Abstract

This study conducts a literature review based meta-analysis on the technology progress of energy- and GHG-relevant vehicle technologies. In particular, we focus on identifying, what technologies, as assessed today (2015-2016), have progressed faster or slower, in terms of effectiveness, cost, and consumer adoption, than what experts projected for the same 2015-2016 period during the rulemaking period of the final rule. A broad range of technologies are investigated in this meta-analysis, including conventional vehicle efficiency technologies (e.g., gasoline engine technologies), battery technologies for plug-in electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles, air conditioning technologies, and other innovative technologies that were not considered during the rulemaking period. By using multiple meta-analysis methods over identified literatures on technologies, we find that most of assessed technologies have generally progressed faster than expected.