Computer models inspired by fusion research - and sand can provide insight toward understanding the complex North American power grid and reducing its vulnerability to blackouts. A dynamic computer model developed by ORNL and university partners simulates an electrical network. By incorporating the slow growth of the power demand and the engineering responses to failures, researchers found that the network tends to operate close to the breaking point where small events, such as a blown breaker, can cascade into larger outages. The model predicts the probability that the network will experience a catastrophic blackout. The work is based on sand researchers studied tumbling sand piles as a model for energy losses in unstable fusion plasmas. The same concept, however, also lends itself to predicting the behavior of complex systems such as the power grid.
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