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A new method for analyzing climate models brings together information from various lines of evidence to represent Earth’s climate sensitivity. Credit: Jason Smith/ORNL, U.S. Dept. of Energy

Researchers from institutions including ORNL have created a new method for statistically analyzing climate models that projects future conditions with more fidelity.

Scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory contributed to several chapters of the Fifth National Climate Assessment, providing expertise in complex ecosystem processes, energy systems, human dynamics, computational science and Earth-scale modeling. Credit: ORNL, U.S. Dept. of Energy

Scientists at ORNL used their knowledge of complex ecosystem processes, energy systems, human dynamics, computational science and Earth-scale modeling to inform the nation’s latest National Climate Assessment, which draws attention to vulnerabilities and resilience opportunities in every region of the country.

Frontier’s exascale power enables the Energy, Exascale and Earth System Model-Multiscale Modeling Framework — or E3SM-MMF — project to run years’ worth of climate simulations at unprecedented speed and scale. Credit: Mark Taylor/Sandia National Laboratories, U.S. Dept. of Energy

The world’s first exascale supercomputer will help scientists peer into the future of global climate change and open a window into weather patterns that could affect the world a generation from now.

red and green sphagnum moss

A type of peat moss has surprised scientists with its climate resilience: Sphagnum divinum is actively speciating in response to hot, dry conditions. 

Researchers used the open-source Community Earth System Model to simulate the effects that extreme climatic conditions have on processes like land carbon storage. Credit: Carlos Jones/ORNL, U.S. Dept. of Energy

Researchers from Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Northeastern University modeled how extreme conditions in a changing climate affect the land’s ability to absorb atmospheric carbon — a key process for mitigating human-caused emissions. They found that 88% of Earth’s regions could become carbon emitters by the end of the 21st century. 

Clouds of gray smoke in the lower left are funneled northward from wildfires in Western Canada, reaching the edge of the sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean. A second path of thick smoke is visible at the top center of the image, emanating from wildfires in the boreal areas of Russia’s Far East, in this image captured on July 13, 2023. Credit: NASA MODIS

Wildfires have shaped the environment for millennia, but they are increasing in frequency, range and intensity in response to a hotter climate. The phenomenon is being incorporated into high-resolution simulations of the Earth’s climate by scientists at the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory, with a mission to better understand and predict environmental change.

This map illustrates the natural climate variability that affects the cold-season climate of the Central Southwest Asian region. Credit: Moetasim Ashfaq/ORNL

As extreme weather devastates communities worldwide, scientists are using modeling and simulation to understand how climate change impacts the frequency and intensity of these events. Although long-term climate projections and models are important, they are less helpful for short-term prediction of extreme weather that may rapidly displace thousands of people or require emergency aid.

CFM’s RISE open fan engine architecture. Image: GE Aerospace

To support the development of a revolutionary new open fan engine architecture for the future of flight, GE Aerospace has run simulations using the world’s fastest supercomputer capable of crunching data in excess of exascale speed, or more than a quintillion calculations per second.

Simulations performed on Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Summit supercomputer generated one of the most detailed portraits to date of how turbulence disperses heat through ocean water under realistic conditions. Credit: Miles Couchman

Simulations performed on the Summit supercomputer at ORNL revealed new insights into the role of turbulence in mixing fluids and could open new possibilities for projecting climate change and studying fluid dynamics.

The newest Gaea system provides increased performance for more advanced climate modeling and simulation

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is launching a new supercomputer dedicated to climate science research. The new system is the fifth supercomputer to be installed and run by the National Climate-Computing Research Center at ORNL.