- Diego Rybski, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Cities exhibit extreme densities of population and assets. Thus, when investigating climate change impacts, a focus must be on urban systems. Moreover, in most cases, climate change impacts manifest in an intensification (magnitude and frequency) of extreme events. Accordingly, the assessment of impacts must be based on estimating the increasing damage caused by natural hazards in cities. Combining extreme value statistics of the hazard with so-called damage functions—for example, translating the magnitude of a hypothetical flood into direct monetary damage—provides the probability distribution of damage. Damage functions, however, are generally not available and in particular generic methods are lacking. Adaptation manipulates the damage function. In the relatively simple case of a flood wall, a threshold is introduced or increased below which the damage is zero. While case study work is usually characterized by a high level of detail, the results are usually not transferable. Thus, a generic methodology is necessary in order to perform large-scale assessments of climate change impact and adaptation to cities. In my talk I present recent achievements in the context of sea-level rise.