- * B1, A1B, and A1FI are three greenhouse gas emission scenarios defined by the IPCC
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), where B1 is a relatively low emissions
scenario (often considered to be a "best case"), A1B is a moderate emissions scenario,
and A1FI is a fossil-fuel intensive emissions scenario (often thought of as a "worst
case"). Recent observations of emissions make the A1FI the most plausible compared to
other scenarios, thus making this the "business as usual" case.
Supporting Materials
- Definition of heat wave adopted from:
- Ganguly, A.R., K. Steinhaeuser, D.J. Erickson III, M. Branstetter, E.S. Parish, N. Singh,
J.B. Drake and L. Buja (2009), Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic
variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves, Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, in Press.
- Meehl, G.A. and C. Tebaldi (2004),
More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting
heat waves in the 21st century, Science, 305, 994-997.
